Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 307 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 307 MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 1237 MSP 18:58 → ORD 20:26 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 307 United Flight history →	MSP 06:00	ORD 07:44	5%	2%	0.6%	92%
DL 1544 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:00	ORD 08:35	8%	3%	0.6%	83%
UA 2000 United	MSP 09:47	ORD 11:22	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2773 United	MSP 08:03	ORD 09:33	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1011 American	MSP 06:11	ORD 07:38	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 4162 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MSP 09:23	ORD 10:51	14%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 1567 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:13	ORD 11:45	15%	4%	0.7%	72%
UA 576 United Flight history →	MSP 11:32	ORD 13:15	15%	6%	0.6%	73%
DL 1533 Delta Flight history →	MSP 13:25	ORD 15:05	16%	6%	0.8%	71%
UA 2790 United	MSP 13:12	ORD 14:54	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3551 Envoy	MSP 10:58	ORD 12:32	18%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2472 American	MSP 19:46	ORD 21:32	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4228 Envoy	MSP 18:06	ORD 19:43	21%	5%	0.9%	no record
DL 1563 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:15	ORD 21:52	22%	5%	0.7%	68%
DL 1306 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:45	ORD 17:26	24%	6%	0.9%	57%
UA 1531 United Flight history →	MSP 15:16	ORD 16:58	24%	8%	0.6%	55%
UA 424 United	MSP 16:46	ORD 18:22	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2448 American	MSP 14:26	ORD 15:54	27%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1237 United Flight history →	MSP 18:58	ORD 20:26	33%	7%	0.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON