Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5518 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 19:55	ORF 23:47	36%	11%	1.2%	64%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → ORF 11:57DL 3066	4h 53m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → BOS 10:47DL 2649	3h 18m Boston	BOS 14:05 → ORF 16:00DL 5858 · flown by Republic	8h 00m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925	7h 46m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:09 → DTW 18:54DL 1476	2h 46m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	6h 23m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 48m Atlanta	ATL 14:42 → ORF 16:22DL 1101	6h 56m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:34 → ATL 14:06DL 1046	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → ORF 19:39DL 1346	8h 05m	99%	82%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 48m Charlotte	CLT 13:48 → ORF 15:09AA 1323	7h 50m	99%	78%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	3h 10m Denver	DEN 17:58 → ORF 23:33UA 680	8h 57m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON