Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2679 MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest OH 5347 MSP 12:41 → PHL 16:33 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2679 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:09	PHL 14:43	7%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 1481 American	MSP 06:00	PHL 09:52	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 2594 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:19	PHL 17:55	9%	4%	0.6%	76%
DL 2703 Delta Flight history →	MSP 19:50	PHL 23:21	10%	3%	0.6%	77%
OH 5347 PSA	MSP 12:41	PHL 16:33	12%	5%	1.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON