Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1047 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 1047 MSP 07:26 → PHX 08:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 408 MSP 14:44 → PHX 16:10 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1047 Delta Flight history →	MSP 07:26	PHX 08:37	9%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 2208 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:28	PHX 10:43	9%	2%	0.5%	77%
DL 2274 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:32	PHX 12:46	11%	3%	0.5%	81%
DL 2284 Delta Flight history →	MSP 14:25	PHX 15:38	12%	4%	0.5%	82%
AA 3143 American Flight history →	MSP 07:41	PHX 09:00	15%	3%	0.8%	85%
DL 2297 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:48	PHX 20:06	15%	5%	0.6%	73%
AA 408 American Flight history →	MSP 14:44	PHX 16:10	20%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON