Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1771 at 10:01, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1771 Delta	MSP 10:01	PVD 13:45	7%	1%	0.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Providence is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	1h 39m Detroit	DTW 10:26 → PVD 12:32DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	5h 28m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	1h 11m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → PVD 12:34DL 2147	6h 14m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	7h 03m	99%	87%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 48m Charlotte	CLT 13:48 → PVD 15:59AA 2679	8h 40m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 20:15 → PVD 22:46DL 2064	9h 01m	99%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON