Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 5530 at 15:29, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5530 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	MSP 15:29	RIC 19:21	10%	4%	0.8%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → RIC 15:20DL 3152	7h 20m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 54m Detroit	DTW 14:36 → RIC 16:21DL 4096 · flown by SkyWest	6h 21m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 15:49 → RIC 17:30DL 1214	8h 04m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:34 → ATL 14:06DL 1046	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → RIC 19:35DL 1348	8h 01m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	46m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → RIC 11:19DL 2650	4h 59m	89%	79%
United Details →	MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460	1h 41m Houston	IAH 12:11 → RIC 16:13UA 4057 · flown by Mesa	7h 38m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655	3h 19m Boston	BOS 17:10 → RIC 19:19DL 5665 · flown by Republic	8h 14m	99%	78%
United Details →	MSP 11:32 → ORD 13:15UA 576	1h 15m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic	5h 17m	90%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON