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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 12:29, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Reno on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Reno is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651 1h 56m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 6h 23m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 5h 59m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:10 → LAX 20:05DL 2122 1h 54m Los Angeles LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest 7h 18m 97% 87%
DeltaDetails → MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 3h 27m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest 8h 51m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00DL 2110 3h 58m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 9h 19m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607 1h 24m Salt Lake City SLC 21:30 → RNO 21:57DL 1607 5h 47m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 1h 22m Denver DEN 16:10 → RNO 17:36UA 1604 6h 00m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 59m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 5h 34m 91% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON