Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2400 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	RSW 13:27	12%	3%	1.3%	86%
DL 2219 Delta	MSP 12:50	RSW 17:18	14%	4%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	2h 42m Denver	DEN 09:35 → RSW 15:20UA 2601	8h 35m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 11:49 → RSW 13:36DL 1153	7h 16m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 46m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	7h 22m	99%	82%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 09:20 → RSW 13:15UA 1036	6h 15m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379	7h 18m	100%	79%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	1h 28m Denver	DEN 16:16 → RSW 21:58UA 572	7h 22m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 10:34 → ATL 14:06DL 1046	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124	7h 21m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:14 → CVG 10:03DL 954	2h 27m Hebron	CVG 12:30 → RSW 15:02DL 5475 · flown by Endeavor	6h 48m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON