Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4007 at 12:42, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4007 MSP 12:42 → SDF 15:39 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 4007 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 12:42	SDF 15:39	11%	3%	0.5%	71%
DL 4988 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 09:00	SDF 12:00	32%	12%	2.4%	68%
DL 5017 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 14:20	SDF 17:15	38%	20%	0.0%	62%
DL 5070 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 20:49	SDF 23:51	47%	17%	1.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON