Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 387 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day AS 387 MSP 06:03 → SEA 07:58 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest DL 881 MSP 18:55 → SEA 20:48 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 387 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 06:03	SEA 07:58	8%	2%	0.9%	85%
DL 889 Delta Flight history →	MSP 11:10	SEA 13:00	9%	2%	0.5%	87%
DL 868 Delta Flight history →	MSP 09:05	SEA 10:59	10%	2%	0.5%	88%
DL 9960 Delta	MSP 08:54	SEA 10:44	11%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 877 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:15	SEA 17:00	12%	3%	0.5%	75%
AS 555 Alaska Flight history →	MSP 14:56	SEA 16:50	16%	3%	0.7%	78%
DL 881 Delta Flight history →	MSP 18:55	SEA 20:48	20%	4%	0.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON