Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 14:30, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2087 Delta Flight history →	MSP 15:30	SJC 17:34	14%	3%	0.5%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 13:03 → LAX 14:59DL 2974	3h 01m Los Angeles	LAX 18:00 → SJC 19:15DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest	8h 12m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:06 → LAX 09:00DL 2110	3h 57m Los Angeles	LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest	9h 06m	100%	89%
American Details →	MSP 07:41 → PHX 09:00AA 3143	2h 09m Phoenix	PHX 11:09 → SJC 13:15AA 3940 · flown by Envoy	7h 34m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	6h 25m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	3h 46m Seattle	SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest	10h 00m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	2h 46m Los Angeles	LAX 16:09 → SJC 17:27DL 1359	7h 57m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:29 → SLC 14:19DL 2651	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:31 → SJC 18:31DL 1172	8h 02m	100%	81%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 48m Chicago	ORD 09:32 → SJC 12:08UA 307	8h 08m	99%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON