Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1701 Delta Flight history →	MSP 10:24	SMF 12:09	11%	2%	0.4%	94%
DL 574 Delta Flight history →	MSP 20:01	SMF 21:51	16%	4%	0.4%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041	1h 07m Denver	DEN 08:00 → SMF 09:34UA 2149	5h 49m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	6h 06m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119	3h 15m Los Angeles	LAX 16:38 → SMF 18:11DL 3712 · flown by SkyWest	8h 41m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 13:03 → LAX 14:59DL 2974	3h 50m Los Angeles	LAX 18:49 → SMF 20:23DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest	9h 20m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	3h 41m Seattle	SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	9h 34m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSP 18:10 → SLC 20:06DL 2607	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:30 → SMF 22:10DL 1582	6h 00m	95%	82%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 20m Chicago	ORD 09:04 → SMF 11:51UA 2145	7h 51m	98%	82%
United Details →	MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891	3h 21m Denver	DEN 13:42 → SMF 15:17UA 662	8h 12m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON