tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 2107 Delta Flight history → MSP 18:28 SNA 20:20 19% 5% 0.6% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 2 h behind Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 04m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 7h 51m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 47m Denver DEN 07:40 → SNA 09:07UA 2666 5h 22m 88% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460 1h 57m Houston IAH 12:27 → SNA 13:56UA 1533 8h 21m 97% 79%
AlaskaDetails → MSP 14:56 → SEA 16:50AS 555 2h 20m Seattle SEA 19:10 → SNA 22:01AS 631 9h 05m 98% 79%
UnitedDetails → MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307 56m Chicago ORD 08:40 → SNA 11:21UA 1304 7h 21m 92% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 2h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 11m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → MSP 07:41 → PHX 09:00AA 3143 2h 05m Phoenix PHX 11:05 → SNA 12:39AA 1656 6h 58m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:39AA 1395 3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → SNA 13:42AA 2465 9h 42m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSP 14:44 → PHX 16:10AA 408 47m Phoenix PHX 16:57 → SNA 18:29AA 2471 5h 45m 59% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON