Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2546 at 15:34, with a 17% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2546 Delta	MSP 15:34	SYR 18:52	17%	4%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Syracuse is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 11:28 → SYR 13:06DL 5533 · flown by Endeavor	6h 02m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → SYR 16:03DL 5465 · flown by Endeavor	6h 03m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	MSP 13:02 → LGA 16:44DL 2756	3h 07m New York	LGA 19:51 → SYR 20:56DL 5421 · flown by Endeavor	6h 54m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:09 → DTW 18:54DL 1476	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → SYR 22:58DL 1689	5h 49m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:05 → SYR 15:16DL 2991	7h 16m	99%	79%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	3h 22m Denver	DEN 18:10 → SYR 23:44UA 2350	9h 08m	99%	74%
American Details →	MSP 06:19 → CLT 10:00AA 894	3h 58m Charlotte	CLT 13:58 → SYR 15:59AA 1950	8h 40m	99%	73%
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09UA 2481	4h 53m	82%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON