tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2264 Delta Flight history → MSP 10:00 TPA 14:14 10% 2% 1.1% 82%
DL 2385 Delta Flight history → MSP 16:05 TPA 20:19 14% 5% 1.1% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:04 → DTW 08:47DL 1461 1h 28m Detroit DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587 5h 46m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 47m Denver DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010 8h 29m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:35 → TPA 14:08DL 1525 7h 48m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:59 → DTW 15:41DL 1519 2h 49m Detroit DTW 18:30 → TPA 21:09DL 1355 7h 10m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 14m Denver DEN 13:35 → TPA 19:13UA 2375 9h 08m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSP 06:55 → JFK 10:39DL 2969 3h 51m New York JFK 14:30 → TPA 17:41DL 2093 9h 46m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:55 → LGA 12:36DL 2719 3h 24m New York LGA 16:00 → TPA 19:21DL 2404 9h 26m 100% 80%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720 6h 09m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON