Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 3995 at 10:29, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3995 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MSP 10:29	TVC 13:04	9%	3%	0.6%	81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MSP 07:35 → IAH 10:30UA 2460	1h 25m Houston	IAH 11:55 → TVC 15:59UA 6261 · flown by Mesa	7h 24m	96%	96%
United Details →	MSP 06:00 → ORD 07:44UA 307	1h 16m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → TVC 11:37UA 4169 · flown by GoJet	4h 37m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MSP 16:09 → DTW 18:54DL 1476	2h 36m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → TVC 22:41DL 2424	5h 32m	99%	79%
American Details →	MSP 09:23 → ORD 10:51AA 4162 · flown by Envoy	1h 21m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:32AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	4h 09m	92%	67%
United Details →	MSP 15:16 → ORD 16:58UA 1531	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → TVC 22:25UA 677	6h 09m	96%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MSP 18:58 → ORD 20:26UA 1237	57m Chicago	ORD 21:23 → TVC 23:29UA 2071	3h 31m	64%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON