Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 5527 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MSP 19:45	TYS 23:01	28%	13%	1.1%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Knoxville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSP 07:00 → ATL 10:32DL 1039	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 13:44 → TYS 14:46DL 1148	6h 46m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052	3h 53m Atlanta	ATL 15:47 → TYS 16:53DL 2571	7h 27m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MSP 05:20 → ATL 08:54DL 1062	54m Atlanta	ATL 09:48 → TYS 10:49DL 1817	4h 29m	94%	81%
United Details →	MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305	2h 37m Denver	DEN 17:25 → TYS 22:19UA 2473	7h 43m	99%	78%
American Details →	MSP 06:00 → DFW 08:39AA 1395	2h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:16 → TYS 14:37AA 2544	7h 37m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → TYS 20:08DL 5203 · flown by Endeavor	6h 26m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	MSP 09:00 → DTW 11:42DL 1433	1h 57m Detroit	DTW 13:39 → TYS 15:19DL 4698 · flown by Endeavor	5h 19m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	MSP 08:55 → LGA 12:36DL 2719	1h 44m New York	LGA 14:20 → TYS 16:38DL 5455 · flown by Endeavor	6h 43m	97%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON