tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 3761 at 09:04, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
OO 3761 SkyWest MSP 09:04 XNA 11:01 11% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSP 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 2041 2h 57m Denver DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest 7h 02m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MSP 10:34 → ATL 14:06DL 1046 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 17:19 → XNA 18:14DL 2771 7h 40m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSP 09:05 → DEN 10:21UA 1891 3h 09m Denver DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MSP 10:19 → DFW 12:50AA 2220 1h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:16 → XNA 15:37AA 3840 · flown by Envoy 5h 18m 93% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSP 12:45 → ATL 16:22DL 1048 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 19:36 → XNA 20:32DL 1710 7h 47m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MSP 17:18 → ATL 21:06DL 1036 1h 51m Atlanta ATL 22:57 → XNA 23:56DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest 6h 38m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSP 08:26 → ATL 11:54DL 1052 3h 51m Atlanta ATL 15:45 → XNA 16:41DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor 8h 15m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSP 13:36 → DEN 14:48UA 1305 3h 02m Denver DEN 17:50 → XNA 20:48UA 1351 7h 12m 99% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON