Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1547 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 1547 MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 2052 MSY 17:12 → ATL 20:08 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1547 Delta Flight history →	MSY 05:20	ATL 07:51	8%	2%	0.8%	92%
DL 2522 Delta Flight history →	MSY 08:30	ATL 10:58	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 1424 Delta Flight history →	MSY 10:55	ATL 13:27	11%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 1534 Delta Flight history →	MSY 07:00	ATL 09:32	12%	3%	0.8%	92%
DL 2542 Delta Flight history →	MSY 12:42	ATL 15:16	15%	3%	0.8%	86%
DL 3157 Delta Flight history →	MSY 15:22	ATL 18:01	19%	5%	2.2%	76%
DL 3146 Delta Flight history →	MSY 17:11	ATL 19:46	22%	7%	2.4%	84%
WN 3084 Southwest	MSY 14:22	ATL 16:58	26%	4%	0.7%	no record
F9 2052 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 17:12	ATL 20:08	36%	13%	3.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON