Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1453 Delta	MSY 14:59	BOS 19:25	29%	10%	0.7%	no record
B6 400 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 16:50	BOS 21:27	32%	14%	1.0%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → BOS 12:41DL 855	6h 21m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MSY 07:00 → ATL 09:32DL 1534	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 12:18 → BOS 14:57DL 1293	6h 57m	99%	85%
American Details →	MSY 05:03 → CLT 08:04AA 424	2h 19m Charlotte	CLT 10:23 → BOS 12:50AA 2263	6h 47m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:30 → ATL 10:58DL 2522	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 13:58 → BOS 16:44DL 726	7h 14m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 18:15 → BOS 21:00DL 821	7h 18m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	MSY 17:11 → ATL 19:46DL 3146	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	7h 09m	94%	76%
United Details →	MSY 11:57 → IAH 13:16UA 2253	3h 34m Houston	IAH 16:50 → BOS 21:58UA 2296	9h 01m	100%	75%
United Details →	MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105	1h 15m Houston	IAH 12:27 → BOS 17:35UA 1226	6h 42m	96%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON