Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 424 at 05:03 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 424 MSY 05:03 → CLT 08:04 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 2615 MSY 17:50 → CLT 20:57 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 424 American Flight history →	MSY 05:03	CLT 08:04	10%	3%	0.9%	91%
AA 2287 American Flight history →	MSY 10:17	CLT 13:26	16%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 2997 American	MSY 14:28	CLT 17:35	25%	6%	1.3%	no record
AA 2615 American Flight history →	MSY 17:50	CLT 20:57	27%	7%	1.1%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON