Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2157 at 08:58 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2157 MSY 08:58 → DFW 10:48 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 2627 MSY 15:46 → DFW 17:35 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2157 American Flight history →	MSY 08:58	DFW 10:48	18%	6%	1.2%	76%
AA 1470 American Flight history →	MSY 07:42	DFW 09:35	19%	5%	1.2%	77%
AA 1684 American	MSY 11:37	DFW 13:18	23%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 1650 American	MSY 12:22	DFW 14:05	26%	9%	1.4%	no record
AA 1811 American	MSY 18:32	DFW 20:28	33%	12%	3.8%	no record
AA 2627 American	MSY 15:46	DFW 17:35	35%	13%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON