Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2790 at 11:22, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2790 Delta Flight history →	MSY 11:22	DTW 14:51	12%	3%	0.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	3h 09m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 36m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:30 → ATL 10:58DL 2522	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → DTW 16:06DL 1031	6h 36m	99%	83%
United Details →	MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124	1h 26m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	5h 42m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:55 → ATL 13:27DL 1424	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	7h 19m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:20 → JFK 14:31DL 1322	2h 19m New York	JFK 16:50 → DTW 18:47DL 2443	7h 27m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MSY 13:30 → SLC 16:01DL 736	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → DTW 23:13DL 2255	8h 43m	95%	77%
United Details →	MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105	3h 09m Houston	IAH 14:21 → DTW 18:15UA 464	7h 22m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:31DL 1232	6h 09m	95%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON