tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
B6 1822 JetBlue Flight history → MSY 07:45 FLL 10:42 24% 7% 5.6% 84%
B6 2722 JetBlue Flight history → MSY 13:43 FLL 16:49 26% 14% 3.5% 51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSY 11:57 → IAH 13:16UA 2253 3h 19m Houston IAH 16:35 → FLL 20:22UA 277 7h 25m 100% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 50m Houston IAH 12:09 → FLL 15:51UA 1982 7h 51m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 6h 03m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:00 → ATL 09:32DL 1534 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 12:31 → FLL 14:27DL 1341 6h 27m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 34m Houston IAH 14:46 → FLL 18:30UA 1424 7h 37m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → MSY 08:30 → ATL 10:58DL 2522 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → FLL 15:55DL 1413 6h 25m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:55 → ATL 13:27DL 1424 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → FLL 18:40DL 1295 6h 45m 98% 70%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → FLL 19:43DL 1670 6h 01m 96% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON