Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2497 at 12:09, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 2497 United Flight history →	MSY 12:09	IAD 15:43	10%	3%	0.7%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 07:00 → ATL 09:32DL 1534	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135	6h 26m	99%	90%
United Details →	MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124	3h 44m Houston	IAH 12:03 → IAD 16:14UA 3904	8h 14m	99%	83%
United Details →	MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376	2h 21m Denver	DEN 12:26 → IAD 17:58UA 2853	8h 54m	95%	81%
United Details →	MSY 11:57 → IAH 13:16UA 2253	3h 19m Houston	IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388	7h 49m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	6h 41m	98%	81%
United Details →	MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105	3h 43m Houston	IAH 14:55 → IAD 18:41UA 1178	7h 48m	99%	80%
American Details →	MSY 10:17 → CLT 13:26AA 2287	2h 40m Charlotte	CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA	6h 30m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:55 → ATL 13:27DL 1424	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	5h 19m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON