Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OO 5365 at 05:17 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–15%.

Safest bet that day OO 5365 MSY 05:17 → IAH 06:52 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2124 MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 5365 SkyWest	MSY 05:17	IAH 06:52	7%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 2105 United Flight history →	MSY 09:53	IAH 11:12	10%	4%	0.7%	90%
YV 6223 Mesa	MSY 19:11	IAH 20:47	11%	6%	1.5%	no record
UA 1532 United Flight history →	MSY 15:35	IAH 17:12	14%	6%	0.7%	81%
UA 2119 United	MSY 17:21	IAH 18:57	15%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2253 United Flight history →	MSY 11:57	IAH 13:16	15%	5%	0.7%	80%
UA 2296 United Flight history →	MSY 14:21	IAH 15:40	17%	5%	0.7%	85%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	MSY 07:00	IAH 08:19	18%	4%	0.7%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON