Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1387 at 18:52 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1387 MSY 18:52 → JFK 22:56 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 176 MSY 10:18 → JFK 14:28 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1387 Delta Flight history →	MSY 18:52	JFK 22:56	13%	6%	1.3%	84%
DL 1322 Delta Flight history →	MSY 10:20	JFK 14:31	15%	4%	1.1%	88%
B6 176 JetBlue Flight history →	MSY 10:18	JFK 14:28	25%	9%	1.0%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON