Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3117 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 3117 MSY 05:57 → LAS 07:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2583 MSY 16:57 → LAS 18:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3117 Southwest	MSY 05:57	LAS 07:54	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 1683 Southwest	MSY 12:22	LAS 14:19	20%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 2583 Southwest	MSY 16:57	LAS 18:59	25%	11%	1.1%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MSY 11:57 → IAH 13:16UA 2253	1h 04m Houston	IAH 14:20 → LAS 15:37UA 1971	5h 40m	87%	70%
United Details →	MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296	1h 07m Houston	IAH 16:47 → LAS 18:06UA 2190	5h 45m	87%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON