tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 2405 Delta MSY 12:22 LGA 16:37 18% 5% 1.2% no record
AA 1675 American MSY 17:28 LGA 21:37 28% 9% 1.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 6h 22m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:00 → ATL 09:32DL 1534 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525 6h 50m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 08:30 → ATL 10:58DL 2522 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460 6h 20m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 02m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:55 → ATL 13:27DL 1424 3h 33m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997 7h 32m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → MSY 05:03 → CLT 08:04AA 424 1h 16m Charlotte CLT 09:20 → LGA 11:15AA 1150 5h 12m 94% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 3h 44m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468 7h 46m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296 2h 57m Houston IAH 18:37 → LGA 23:22UA 2682 8h 01m 97% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON