Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3123 at 05:12 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3123 MSY 05:12 → MCO 08:06 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3554 MSY 15:44 → MCO 18:44 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3123 Southwest	MSY 05:12	MCO 08:06	3%	1%	4.6%	no record
WN 1440 Southwest	MSY 08:12	MCO 11:06	7%	3%	4.7%	no record
WN 1590 Southwest	MSY 10:07	MCO 13:01	12%	3%	15.0%	no record
WN 5036 Southwest	MSY 11:07	MCO 14:01	14%	4%	4.6%	no record
F9 1432 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 20:04	MCO 23:09	14%	8%	3.6%	81%
WN 3126 Southwest	MSY 12:57	MCO 15:51	16%	4%	1.5%	no record
WN 4043 Southwest	MSY 16:12	MCO 19:06	19%	6%	1.5%	no record
F9 3554 Frontier Flight history →	MSY 15:44	MCO 18:44	19%	10%	3.7%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON