Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2844 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–27%.

Safest bet that day UA 2844 MSY 06:52 → ORD 09:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1301 MSY 14:13 → ORD 16:38 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2844 United	MSY 06:52	ORD 09:18	13%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 3229 American	MSY 06:03	ORD 08:50	14%	5%	1.1%	no record
UA 1677 United Flight history →	MSY 10:23	ORD 13:02	17%	7%	0.8%	83%
AA 4468 American flown by Republic Flight history →	MSY 11:27	ORD 14:04	18%	4%	1.2%	92%worse than usual
OO 5375 SkyWest	MSY 17:33	ORD 20:26	24%	9%	1.1%	no record
UA 1301 United Flight history →	MSY 14:13	ORD 16:38	27%	8%	0.9%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON