Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 716 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 716 MSY 05:57 → PHL 10:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2061 MSY 16:42 → PHL 20:40 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 716 American	MSY 05:57	PHL 10:03	7%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 2534 American	MSY 11:12	PHL 15:21	16%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2061 American Flight history →	MSY 16:42	PHL 20:40	22%	7%	1.1%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON