tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Phoenix on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 940 Southwest MSY 14:22 PHX 16:08 16% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085 3h 59m Los Angeles LAX 13:59 → PHX 15:34DL 3894 · flown by SkyWest 9h 31m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 8h 56m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:00 → ATL 09:32DL 1534 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 9h 18m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 03m Houston IAH 14:15 → PHX 15:04UA 1798 7h 11m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 13m Denver DEN 13:18 → PHX 14:12UA 631 8h 08m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:22 → DTW 14:51DL 2790 2h 20m Detroit DTW 17:11 → PHX 18:15DL 1135 8h 53m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:09 → IAD 15:43UA 2497 2h 07m Dulles IAD 17:50 → PHX 19:46UA 1938 9h 37m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:55 → ATL 13:27DL 1424 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → PHX 17:39DL 836 8h 44m 98% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MSY 07:42 → DFW 09:35AA 1470 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:26 → PHX 11:03AA 2905 5h 21m 75% 60%
AmericanDetails → MSY 08:58 → DFW 10:48AA 2157 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:34 → PHX 12:00AA 359 5h 02m 75% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON