tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:04, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:30 → SAN 14:55UA 1302 8h 51m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 48m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 41m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 8h 21m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → MSY 11:57 → IAH 13:16UA 2253 3h 10m Houston IAH 16:26 → SAN 17:54UA 2798 7h 57m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 18m Houston IAH 14:30 → SAN 15:48UA 1114 7h 55m 98% 73%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 2h 44m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:30DL 712 8h 48m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSY 10:23 → ORD 13:02UA 1677 3h 22m Chicago ORD 16:24 → SAN 18:48UA 2138 10h 25m 100% 73%
DeltaDetails → MSY 11:22 → DTW 14:51DL 2790 1h 44m Detroit DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369 8h 52m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296 46m Houston IAH 16:26 → SAN 17:54UA 2798 5h 33m 71% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON