tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1311 at 13:07, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1311 Southwest MSY 13:07 SAT 15:00 9% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:00 → ATL 09:32DL 1534 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 6h 38m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 34m Houston IAH 14:46 → SAT 15:53UA 2030 6h 00m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 1h 20m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 3h 46m 92% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 16:59 → SAT 18:29DL 1465 5h 47m 94% 76%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:55 → ATL 13:27DL 1424 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → SAT 16:05DL 2009 5h 10m 91% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296 3h 09m Houston IAH 18:49 → SAT 19:57UA 1477 5h 36m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → MSY 07:42 → DFW 09:35AA 1470 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:03 → SAT 13:18AA 2768 5h 36m 95% 71%
AmericanDetails → MSY 08:58 → DFW 10:48AA 2157 3h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:31 → SAT 15:48AA 1961 6h 50m 98% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON