Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 09:53, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 569 Alaska Flight history →	MSY 17:19	SEA 20:25	30%	8%	0.8%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 07:00 → ATL 09:32DL 1534	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 50m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	1h 59m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 53m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085	4h 00m Los Angeles	LAX 14:00 → SEA 16:40DL 2606	10h 37m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:30 → ATL 10:58DL 2522	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 14:28 → SEA 16:43DL 481	10h 13m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	MSY 11:22 → DTW 14:51DL 2790	1h 55m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	9h 20m	97%	77%
United Details →	MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124	3h 48m Houston	IAH 12:07 → SEA 14:53UA 2228	9h 53m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:55 → ATL 13:27DL 1424	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → SEA 19:05DL 472	10h 10m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → SEA 23:59DL 903	10h 37m	99%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON