tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 08:04, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching San Francisco on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1973 United Flight history → MSY 07:57 SFO 10:46 20% 6% 0.7% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Francisco on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 2 h behind New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MSY 12:09 → IAD 15:43UA 2497 2h 59m Dulles IAD 18:42 → SFO 21:31UA 2832 11h 22m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547 1h 49m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672 8h 13m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → MSY 08:04 → DEN 10:05UA 1376 3h 20m Denver DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812 9h 05m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSY 15:22 → ATL 18:01DL 3157 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 21:48 → SFO 23:57DL 656 10h 35m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → MSY 08:03 → LAX 10:00DL 2085 2h 02m Los Angeles LAX 12:02 → SFO 13:32DL 689 7h 29m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSY 11:57 → IAH 13:16UA 2253 2h 14m Houston IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 7h 38m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105 3h 17m Houston IAH 14:29 → SFO 16:27UA 2611 8h 34m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:21 → IAH 15:40UA 2296 4h 00m Houston IAH 19:40 → SFO 21:55UA 1202 9h 34m 98% 72%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON