tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3138 at 07:32, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3138 Southwest MSY 07:32 STL 09:35 5% 1% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MSY 08:30 → ATL 10:58DL 2522 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700 5h 57m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MSY 07:00 → ATL 09:32DL 1534 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566 5h 30m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → MSY 07:00 → IAH 08:19UA 2124 3h 37m Houston IAH 11:56 → STL 14:17UA 2042 7h 17m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSY 16:30 → MSP 19:15DL 2695 1h 15m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 5h 33m 92% 82%
DeltaDetails → MSY 10:55 → ATL 13:27DL 1424 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 5h 44m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → MSY 13:30 → SLC 16:01DL 736 1h 09m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → STL 21:00DL 2666 7h 30m 93% 77%
UnitedDetails → MSY 15:35 → IAH 17:12UA 1532 2h 53m Houston IAH 20:05 → STL 22:07UA 1528 6h 32m 94% 75%
UnitedDetails → MSY 14:13 → ORD 16:38UA 1301 3h 30m Chicago ORD 20:08 → STL 21:27UA 1625 7h 14m 98% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON