Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3141 at 06:27, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3141 Southwest	MSY 06:27	TPA 09:15	3%	1%	4.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of New Orleans). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MSY 07:00 → ATL 09:32DL 1534	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 12:35 → TPA 14:08DL 1525	6h 08m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	MSY 05:20 → ATL 07:51DL 1547	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → TPA 11:37DL 1587	5h 17m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MSY 08:30 → ATL 10:58DL 2522	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:03 → TPA 15:35DL 1720	6h 05m	99%	79%
United Details →	MSY 12:09 → IAD 15:43UA 2497	2h 17m Dulles	IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140	7h 30m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	MSY 10:55 → ATL 13:27DL 1424	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 16:18 → TPA 17:53DL 1425	5h 58m	98%	77%
United Details →	MSY 09:53 → IAH 11:12UA 2105	1h 38m Houston	IAH 12:50 → TPA 16:12UA 1501	5h 19m	96%	76%
American Details →	MSY 05:03 → CLT 08:04AA 424	2h 29m Charlotte	CLT 10:33 → TPA 12:25AA 436	6h 22m	97%	75%
Delta Details →	MSY 12:42 → ATL 15:16DL 2542	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457	6h 12m	97%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	MSY 17:12 → ATL 20:08F9 2052	1h 08m Atlanta	ATL 21:16 → TPA 23:03F9 3054	4h 51m	72%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON