Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5176 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day OH 5176 MYR 06:23 → CLT 07:33 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2943 MYR 17:37 → CLT 18:47 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5176 PSA	MYR 06:23	CLT 07:33	9%	3%	1.6%	no record
OH 5290 PSA	MYR 10:16	CLT 11:32	10%	3%	1.7%	no record
OH 5188 PSA	MYR 13:55	CLT 15:01	15%	3%	1.7%	no record
AA 3296 American Flight history →	MYR 08:09	CLT 09:11	16%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 2431 American Flight history →	MYR 12:11	CLT 13:17	23%	5%	0.9%	96%worse than usual
AA 1417 American Flight history →	MYR 19:23	CLT 20:29	29%	7%	1.0%	73%
AA 2943 American Flight history →	MYR 17:37	CLT 18:47	30%	6%	1.0%	79%
AA 5883 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 13:01	CLT 14:17	0%	0%	0.0%	100%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON