tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4464 Republic MYR 10:22 DCA 11:47 9% 3% 1.1% no record
YX 4341 Republic MYR 16:21 DCA 18:07 10% 4% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 07:00 → ATL 08:23DL 3162 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798 5h 52m 97% 84%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 2h 38m Philadelphia PHL 15:46 → DCA 17:02AA 5363 · flown by PSA 5h 43m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:37 → ATL 12:59DL 3047 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 15:35 → DCA 17:30DL 850 5h 53m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 2h 25m Charlotte CLT 16:42 → DCA 18:23AA 2002 5h 22m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → MYR 15:50 → ATL 17:15DL 3182 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325 4h 57m 94% 74%
AmericanDetails → MYR 17:37 → CLT 18:47AA 2943 3h 40m Charlotte CLT 22:27 → DCA 23:53AA 1269 6h 16m 95% 74%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 1h 24m Detroit DTW 14:55 → DCA 16:34DL 1454 5h 00m 93% 71%
DeltaDetails → MYR 14:55 → BOS 17:13DL 3087 53m Boston BOS 18:06 → DCA 20:00DL 5667 · flown by Republic 5h 05m 84% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON