Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 11:37, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1906 United	MYR 15:57	DEN 18:01	16%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MYR 10:34 → IAD 12:11UA 4324 · flown by CommuteAir	2h 24m Dulles	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	7h 55m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	2h 30m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → DEN 17:07DL 2431	7h 33m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:37 → ATL 12:59DL 3047	3h 02m Atlanta	ATL 16:01 → DEN 17:08DL 493	7h 31m	99%	81%
American Details →	MYR 08:09 → CLT 09:11AA 3296	1h 41m Charlotte	CLT 10:52 → DEN 12:27AA 1662	6h 18m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	MYR 15:50 → ATL 17:15DL 3182	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DEN 20:43DL 746	6h 53m	95%	72%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	3h 15m Charlotte	CLT 17:32 → DEN 19:15AA 3156	8h 14m	100%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON