Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 1145 at 11:34, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1145 Delta Flight history →	MYR 11:34	DTW 13:31	11%	4%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 07:00 → ATL 08:23DL 3162	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	5h 56m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:37 → ATL 12:59DL 3047	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 15:28 → DTW 17:28DL 1005	5h 51m	99%	81%
American Details →	MYR 08:09 → CLT 09:11AA 3296	3h 17m Charlotte	CLT 12:28 → DTW 14:17AA 1683	6h 08m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MYR 15:50 → ATL 17:15DL 3182	3h 15m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → DTW 22:31DL 1232	6h 41m	96%	77%
American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	1h 31m Charlotte	CLT 15:48 → DTW 17:36AA 1134	4h 35m	100%	75%
American Details →	MYR 18:45 → PHL 20:34AA 5849 · flown by Piedmont	1h 09m Philadelphia	PHL 21:43 → DTW 23:35AA 5418 · flown by PSA	4h 50m	81%	65%
American Details →	MYR 17:37 → CLT 18:47AA 2943	1h 59m Charlotte	CLT 20:46 → DTW 22:34AA 419	4h 57m	90%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON