Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4324 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 10:34	IAD 12:11	18%	7%	0.0%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont	1h 49m Charlotte	CLT 16:06 → IAD 17:47AA 5447 · flown by PSA	4h 46m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:37 → ATL 12:59DL 3047	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:26 → IAD 17:14DL 1695	5h 37m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 14:47 → IAD 16:22DL 1787	4h 48m	93%	78%
Delta Details →	MYR 15:50 → ATL 17:15DL 3182	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 18:31 → IAD 20:23DL 1309	4h 33m	92%	76%
American Details →	MYR 17:37 → CLT 18:47AA 2943	2h 28m Charlotte	CLT 21:15 → IAD 22:42AA 2608	5h 05m	90%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MYR 18:46 → EWR 20:55UA 3714 · flown by Republic	55m Newark	EWR 21:50 → IAD 23:19UA 1784	4h 33m	75%	53%
American Details →	MYR 19:23 → CLT 20:29AA 1417	46m Charlotte	CLT 21:15 → IAD 22:42AA 2608	3h 19m	62%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON