tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:50, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching New York on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 15:50 → ATL 17:15DL 3182 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520 7h 34m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → MYR 07:00 → ATL 08:23DL 3162 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371 5h 42m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 2h 25m Detroit DTW 15:56 → LGA 17:45DL 2602 6h 11m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:37 → ATL 12:59DL 3047 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 15:30 → LGA 17:54DL 433 6h 17m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → MYR 08:09 → CLT 09:11AA 3296 2h 41m Charlotte CLT 11:52 → LGA 13:43AA 2268 5h 34m 97% 77%
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 1h 25m Charlotte CLT 15:42 → LGA 17:37AA 1942 4h 36m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → MYR 17:37 → CLT 18:47AA 2943 2h 53m Charlotte CLT 21:40 → LGA 23:29AA 2031 5h 52m 90% 66%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON