Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3148 at 07:45, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3148 Southwest	MYR 07:45	MDW 09:10	5%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MYR 07:00 → ATL 08:23DL 3162	1h 17m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	4h 42m	92%	81%
Delta Details →	MYR 11:37 → ATL 12:59DL 3047	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	4h 53m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	MYR 15:50 → ATL 17:15DL 3182	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 25m	98%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON