tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, YX 3402 at 16:40, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
YX 3402 Republic MYR 16:40 ORD 18:13 21% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 07:00 → ATL 08:23DL 3162 2h 52m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → ORD 12:27DL 2894 6h 27m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → MYR 08:09 → CLT 09:11AA 3296 1h 50m Charlotte CLT 11:01 → ORD 12:19AA 2908 5h 10m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → MYR 10:34 → IAD 12:11UA 4324 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 54m Dulles IAD 16:05 → ORD 17:06UA 1703 7h 32m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 2h 25m Detroit DTW 15:56 → ORD 16:23DL 2358 5h 49m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → MYR 11:19 → PHL 13:08AA 5848 · flown by Piedmont 2h 37m Philadelphia PHL 15:45 → ORD 17:29AA 470 7h 10m 96% 70%
AmericanDetails → MYR 17:37 → CLT 18:47AA 2943 3h 48m Charlotte CLT 22:35 → ORD 23:36AA 627 6h 59m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 2h 10m Charlotte CLT 16:27 → ORD 17:50AA 536 5h 49m 100% 68%
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:27 → PHL 15:14AA 6120 · flown by Piedmont 2h 42m Philadelphia PHL 17:56 → ORD 19:33AA 2041 7h 06m 96% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MYR 14:55 → BOS 17:13DL 3087 46m Boston BOS 17:59 → ORD 19:57DL 2804 6h 02m 72% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON