Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5634 at 12:22, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5634 MYR 12:22 → PHL 14:14 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5634 PSA	MYR 12:22	PHL 14:14	14%	4%	2.0%	no record
AA 5848 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 11:19	PHL 13:08	15%	7%	1.4%	85%
AA 5849 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 18:45	PHL 20:38	23%	16%	9.9%	77%
AA 6120 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	MYR 13:27	PHL 15:12	26%	13%	2.8%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON