tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching St Louis on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Myrtle Beach). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MYR 07:00 → ATL 08:23DL 3162 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:52 → STL 12:30DL 566 6h 30m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:37 → ATL 12:59DL 3047 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 6h 02m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MYR 08:09 → CLT 09:11AA 3296 3h 02m Charlotte CLT 12:13 → STL 13:10AA 3096 6h 01m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → MYR 11:34 → DTW 13:31DL 1145 1h 02m Detroit DTW 14:33 → STL 15:17DL 1371 4h 43m 90% 79%
DeltaDetails → MYR 15:50 → ATL 17:15DL 3182 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833 5h 47m 96% 77%
AmericanDetails → MYR 19:23 → CLT 20:29AA 1417 2h 27m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459 5h 35m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → MYR 13:01 → CLT 14:17AA 5883 · flown by Piedmont 2h 19m Charlotte CLT 16:36 → STL 17:38AA 2686 5h 37m 100% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON