Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 27 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 76 at 07:13 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 07:13 → SFO 10:24 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1844 EWR 18:00 → SFO 21:28 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 07:13	SFO 10:24	11%	3%	1.2%	90%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	12%	4%	0.7%	74%
UA 2115 United Flight history →	EWR 06:00	SFO 09:09	13%	3%	1.0%	85%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	14%	4%	0.7%	74%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:29	SFO 10:43	14%	4%	0.9%	87%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	SFO 14:08	14%	5%	0.8%	78%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 11:12	SFO 14:21	16%	4%	1.0%	60%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	17%	5%	0.9%	64%
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	20%	7%	1.2%	75%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 12:50	SFO 16:03	20%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 177 American Flight history →	JFK 21:30	SFO 00:59	20%	6%	1.1%	66%
UA 1960 United Flight history →	EWR 07:00	SFO 09:59	21%	5%	1.1%	72%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	21%	9%	1.0%	65%
UA 1777 United Flight history →	EWR 08:15	SFO 11:29	24%	7%	0.9%	72%
UA 648 United Flight history →	EWR 10:40	SFO 13:51	26%	7%	0.9%	72%
UA 1593 United Flight history →	EWR 09:37	SFO 12:54	27%	6%	0.9%	50%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:36	SFO 19:49	28%	8%	0.7%	67%
AS 32 Alaska	JFK 16:44	SFO 19:45	28%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 2004 United Flight history →	EWR 16:08	SFO 19:19	29%	11%	0.9%	78%
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:05	SFO 20:23	29%	10%	0.9%	67%
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:15	SFO 22:55	31%	9%	0.7%	62%
UA 1343 United Flight history →	EWR 11:50	SFO 15:01	31%	7%	0.9%	68%
AS 39 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 19:01	SFO 22:03	33%	9%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
UA 1227 United Flight history →	EWR 13:30	SFO 16:28	33%	9%	0.9%	73%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	EWR 17:00	SFO 20:37	35%	12%	0.9%	62%
UA 2328 United Flight history →	EWR 14:45	SFO 17:48	37%	11%	1.0%	68%
UA 1844 United Flight history →	EWR 18:00	SFO 21:28	41%	13%	0.9%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LGA 06:00 → ATL 08:23DL 550	1h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	98%	84%
United Details →	EWR 06:00 → IAD 07:22UA 1366	1h 13m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 19m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	EWR 07:15 → SLC 10:13DL 1009	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 20m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON